WHAT: Labor Department initial Jobless Claims, weekly
WHEN: Thursday, 0830 EST (1330 GMT)
FORECASTS Reuters IFR Previous
Initial claims 365,000 365,000 358,000
Continued claims (mln) 3.500 3.480 3.515
IFR COMMENTARY: "While it is true that the workforce is
experiencing a decelerated pace of layoffs, initial claims
should rise during the week ending February 11, to 365,000. It's
an increase of 7k after two weeks of declines totaling 21k. The
most recent fall (down to 358k from 373k) came as NSA claims
fell three times more than seasonally projected. A second fall
(of roughly 20k NSA) is projected and that may occur, keeping SA
claims unchanged. However, a NSA decline markedly larger (two or
three times more) than seasonally expected in two consecutive
reports does not tend to occur. If it did, we'd see another
double-digit SA decline making filing behavior look as it did in
February 2008, prior to the acceleration of the financial
crisis. But this is not as likely to happen as some adjustment
upward.
"Continuing claims, on an overall downwards trend in early
2012, may slip to 3.480 mln in the week ending February 4, which
is not so big a change from its current 3.515 mln."
-----------------
WHAT: Labor Department Producer Price Index, January
WHEN: Thursday, 0830 EST (1330 GMT)
FORECASTS (pct) Reuters IFR Previous
PPI +0.4 +0.4 -0.1
PPI ex-food/energy +0.2 +0.3 +0.3
PPI year/year +4.2 +4.3 +4.8
Core PPI year/year +2.7 +2.8 +3.0
IFR COMMENTARY: "January PPI should see a 0.4% overall increase,
with a 0.3% increase in the core rate excluding food and energy.
Gasoline should more than fully explain a 0.9% increase in
energy prices with the other components likely to have a
marginally negative influence. Mild weather may hint at weakness
in food, but farm price data gives a different message, and on
balance we expect a 0.5% increase in food prices. The core rate
may see a slightly above trend rise on the month, with autos
still having some unwind of seasonal softness in October at the
start of the new model year, and some manufacturing surveys
hinting at increasing pricing power in their prices received
index. Despite the expected monthly increases, even stronger
data in January 2011 dropping out should see declines in yr/yr
growth of 4.8% to 4.3% overall, and from 3.0% to 2.8% in the
core. The overall yr/yr rate peaked at 7.1% in July but the core
will be coming off its highest level since June 2009. Core crude
and intermediate data should look quite subdued in January, but
overall the crude and intermediate indices should rise on food
and energy."
-----------------
WHAT: Commerce Department Housing Starts, January
WHEN: Thursday, 0830 EST (1330 GMT)
FORECASTS (annual rates) Reuters IFR Previous
Starts 675,000 680,000 657,000
Permits 680,000 670,000 671,000
IFR COMMENTARY: "Housing starts and building permits likely saw
little change in January, with starts rebounding from 657k to
680k, and permits holding about steady at 670k. Still, that
would keep them on a solid upward trend, driven mostly by
multi-unit structures, but with some life in the single-family
sector as well.
"Another month of very mild weather likely helped new home
construction continue apace. Homebuilder optimism has been on
the rise, with the NAHB Housing Market Index soaring from 14 in
September to 25 in January. New home sales, however, have
remained flat through December, and mortgage purchase
applications remain moribund, so home builders may reasonably
worry that construction is starting to once again get a little
too far out ahead of demand, even at these historically very low
levels.
"We do expect the trend to continue slowly upward over the
medium term, however, as existing home inventory continues
coming down and as the labor market improves -- assuming it
continues to do so. That should help prices stabilize and lead
to new household formation, the ultimate driver of new home
demand, which has been deeply depressed since the onset of the
recession."
-----------------
WHAT: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Index, February
WHEN: Thursday, 1000 EST (1500 GMT)
FORECASTS Reuters IFR Previous
BOS Index 9.5 9.5 7.3
IFR COMMENTARY: "The Philly Fed's Business Outlook Survey has
been indicating relatively stable, moderate growth over the last
several months, and we look for just a little acceleration in
February, with the headline rising from +7.3 to about +9.5.
Manufacturing as a whole appears to be enjoying a "smooth
patch", and the Philly Fed's headline was actually near the
lower end of the range of regional manufacturing surveys in
January.
"Manufacturing payrolls have had a stellar couple of months,
rising 32k in December and 50k in January. That's likely to help
drive a solid gain in production, with some feedback through
increased demand for capital goods. The Philly Fed District may
not benefit from the latter effect as much as Midwestern states,
however.
"Forward-looking indicators were mixed in the January
report, implying no dramatic shifts in February (though the
correlations are quite loose). The new orders index dropped from
+10.7 to +6.9, while the future activity index rose from +40.0
to +49.0."
WHEN: Thursday, 0830 EST (1330 GMT)
FORECASTS Reuters IFR Previous
Initial claims 365,000 365,000 358,000
Continued claims (mln) 3.500 3.480 3.515
IFR COMMENTARY: "While it is true that the workforce is
experiencing a decelerated pace of layoffs, initial claims
should rise during the week ending February 11, to 365,000. It's
an increase of 7k after two weeks of declines totaling 21k. The
most recent fall (down to 358k from 373k) came as NSA claims
fell three times more than seasonally projected. A second fall
(of roughly 20k NSA) is projected and that may occur, keeping SA
claims unchanged. However, a NSA decline markedly larger (two or
three times more) than seasonally expected in two consecutive
reports does not tend to occur. If it did, we'd see another
double-digit SA decline making filing behavior look as it did in
February 2008, prior to the acceleration of the financial
crisis. But this is not as likely to happen as some adjustment
upward.
"Continuing claims, on an overall downwards trend in early
2012, may slip to 3.480 mln in the week ending February 4, which
is not so big a change from its current 3.515 mln."
-----------------
WHAT: Labor Department Producer Price Index, January
WHEN: Thursday, 0830 EST (1330 GMT)
FORECASTS (pct) Reuters IFR Previous
PPI +0.4 +0.4 -0.1
PPI ex-food/energy +0.2 +0.3 +0.3
PPI year/year +4.2 +4.3 +4.8
Core PPI year/year +2.7 +2.8 +3.0
IFR COMMENTARY: "January PPI should see a 0.4% overall increase,
with a 0.3% increase in the core rate excluding food and energy.
Gasoline should more than fully explain a 0.9% increase in
energy prices with the other components likely to have a
marginally negative influence. Mild weather may hint at weakness
in food, but farm price data gives a different message, and on
balance we expect a 0.5% increase in food prices. The core rate
may see a slightly above trend rise on the month, with autos
still having some unwind of seasonal softness in October at the
start of the new model year, and some manufacturing surveys
hinting at increasing pricing power in their prices received
index. Despite the expected monthly increases, even stronger
data in January 2011 dropping out should see declines in yr/yr
growth of 4.8% to 4.3% overall, and from 3.0% to 2.8% in the
core. The overall yr/yr rate peaked at 7.1% in July but the core
will be coming off its highest level since June 2009. Core crude
and intermediate data should look quite subdued in January, but
overall the crude and intermediate indices should rise on food
and energy."
-----------------
WHAT: Commerce Department Housing Starts, January
WHEN: Thursday, 0830 EST (1330 GMT)
FORECASTS (annual rates) Reuters IFR Previous
Starts 675,000 680,000 657,000
Permits 680,000 670,000 671,000
IFR COMMENTARY: "Housing starts and building permits likely saw
little change in January, with starts rebounding from 657k to
680k, and permits holding about steady at 670k. Still, that
would keep them on a solid upward trend, driven mostly by
multi-unit structures, but with some life in the single-family
sector as well.
"Another month of very mild weather likely helped new home
construction continue apace. Homebuilder optimism has been on
the rise, with the NAHB Housing Market Index soaring from 14 in
September to 25 in January. New home sales, however, have
remained flat through December, and mortgage purchase
applications remain moribund, so home builders may reasonably
worry that construction is starting to once again get a little
too far out ahead of demand, even at these historically very low
levels.
"We do expect the trend to continue slowly upward over the
medium term, however, as existing home inventory continues
coming down and as the labor market improves -- assuming it
continues to do so. That should help prices stabilize and lead
to new household formation, the ultimate driver of new home
demand, which has been deeply depressed since the onset of the
recession."
-----------------
WHAT: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey Index, February
WHEN: Thursday, 1000 EST (1500 GMT)
FORECASTS Reuters IFR Previous
BOS Index 9.5 9.5 7.3
IFR COMMENTARY: "The Philly Fed's Business Outlook Survey has
been indicating relatively stable, moderate growth over the last
several months, and we look for just a little acceleration in
February, with the headline rising from +7.3 to about +9.5.
Manufacturing as a whole appears to be enjoying a "smooth
patch", and the Philly Fed's headline was actually near the
lower end of the range of regional manufacturing surveys in
January.
"Manufacturing payrolls have had a stellar couple of months,
rising 32k in December and 50k in January. That's likely to help
drive a solid gain in production, with some feedback through
increased demand for capital goods. The Philly Fed District may
not benefit from the latter effect as much as Midwestern states,
however.
"Forward-looking indicators were mixed in the January
report, implying no dramatic shifts in February (though the
correlations are quite loose). The new orders index dropped from
+10.7 to +6.9, while the future activity index rose from +40.0
to +49.0."